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The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

1. Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been made only by the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a "Palean" basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could have crossed it only by boat, and no Palean boats have been found. Thus it follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not uniquely Palean.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

The following is a recommendation from thepersonnel director to the president of Acme Publishing Company.

"Many other companies have recentlystated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course hasgreatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a500-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistantmanager to vice president of the company in under a year. Obviously, the fasteryou can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday.Moreover, Easy Read would cost Acme only $500 per employee—a small price to paywhen you consider the benefits. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar inSpruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly,to improve productivity, Acme should require all of our employees to take theEasy Read course."

Write a response in which you discuss whatquestions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the advice andthe argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how theanswers to these questions would help to evaluate the advice.

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