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The following is part of a business plan created by the management of the Megamart grocery store.

“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over other local stores.”

Megamart雜貨店的管理層的商務(wù)計(jì)劃：

由于我們?cè)陔s貨店內(nèi)加了藥劑部分，今年我們的總體銷售額增加了20%。顯然，顧客主要關(guān)注的是一次性購物的便利性。在今后兩年內(nèi)提高我們的利潤的最佳方法是增加一個(gè)成衣部門和一個(gè)汽車配件和維修商店。我們同時(shí)也應(yīng)該在最后的紀(jì)念中繼續(xù)增加新的部門和服務(wù)，比如餐館，園藝商店。成為本地唯一的提供如此廣泛服務(wù)的商店將給我們帶來超越其他商店的競爭優(yōu)勢。

1. 總體銷售額增加20%利潤不一定也會(huì)相應(yīng)增加。

2. 銷售額的增加不一定是由于增加了這個(gè)部門造成的。

3. 以后是否還會(huì)有如此效果不一定。因?yàn)榭赡芤呀?jīng)有企業(yè)提供更專業(yè)更優(yōu)質(zhì)的商品和服務(wù)。

1. 沒有建立因果。sequence不能證明因果。不知道收入來自哪個(gè)section. 很可能是有其他的原因：很可能是pharmacy沒有利潤。利潤來自其他的部分。比如食品等，質(zhì)量提高，或者經(jīng)濟(jì)情況好，人們有更多的demand。

2. 銷售額增加不一定是profit增加。

3. 錯(cuò)誤類比：就算加入了pharmacy引起了收入提高，也不能說增加的clothing和其他也會(huì)引起收入。很可能人們不是因?yàn)?/span>convenience，而是對(duì)medicine的需要。很可能其他的，人們更愿意到special shops。

The management of the Megamart grocery store concludes that adding new departments and services is the surest way to increase profits over the next couple of years. They are led to this conclusion because of a 20 percent increase in total sates, realized after the addition of a pharmacy section to the grocery store. On the basis of this experience, they concluded that the convenience of one-stop shopping was the main concern of their customers. The management’s argument is faulty in several respects.

In the first place, the management assumes that the increase in total sales was due to the addition of the pharmacy section. However, the only evidence offered to support this conclusion is the fact that the addition of the pharmacy preceded the increase in sales. But the mere fact that the pharmacy section was added before the increase occurred is insufficient grounds to conclude that it was responsible for the increase. Many other factors could bring about this same result. Lacking a detailed analysis of the source of the sales increase, it would be sheer folly to attribute the increase to the addition of the pharmacy section.

In the second place, even if it were the case that the increase in total sales was due to the addition of the pharmacy section, this fact alone is insufficient to support the claim that adding additional departments will increase sales even further. It is quite possible that the addition of the pharmacy section increased sales simply because there was no other pharmacy in the vicinity. The additional proposed departments and services, on the other hand, might be well represented in the area and their addition might have no impact whatsoever on the profits of the store. In other words, there may be relevant differences between the pharmacy section and the additional proposed sections that preclude them from having a similar effect on the sales of the store.

In conclusion, the management’s argument is not well-reasoned. To strengthen the conclusion, the management must provide additional evidence linking the addition of the pharmacy section to the increase in total sales. It must also show that there are no exceptional reasons for the sales increase due to the pharmacy section that would not apply to the other proposed additions.

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